PURBA, HARISAH TRIHAPSARI (2026) PROSPEK EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA DIPASAR ASEAN DAN EROPA. S2 thesis, Universitas Malikussaleh.

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Abstract

HARISAH TRIHAPSARI PURBA. Prospects for Indonesian Coffee Exports in the ASEAN and European Markets. Supervised by RITA ARIANI and SETIA BUDI. Indonesia is one of the world's major coffee producers and exporters, holding significant potential to expand its export markets, particularly within the ASEAN and European regions. However, international trade dynamics, competition among exporting nations, shifting demand, and varying market characteristics have caused fluctuations in the growth of Indonesian coffee exports. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness, market position and dynamics, as well as trends and projections regarding Indonesian coffee exports in the ASEAN and European markets. The research utilizes secondary time-series data covering the 2015–2024 period for the coffee commodity (Harmonized System/HS code 0901), sourced from United Nations Comtrade. The analytical methods employed include Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results indicate that Indonesian coffee possesses strong comparative competitiveness in both the ASEAN and European markets; this is evidenced by RCA values consistently exceeding one throughout the 2015–2024 period, with Indonesia's RCA values ranging from 1.96 to 4.39. Based on the EPD analysis, Indonesian coffee occupies a "Lost Opportunity" position in the ASEAN market, with X-axis and Y-axis values of -0.02% and 0.03%, respectively. A similar condition was observed in the European market, where it also held a "Lost Opportunity" position with X-axis and Y-axis values of -0.02% and 0.03%. These findings suggest that while the ASEAN and European markets continue to grow, Indonesia's coffee market share has not kept pace with this market growth optimally. Furthermore, forecasting results using the ARIMA(0,0,0) model indicate that the value of Indonesian coffee exports for the 2025–2029 period is projected to remain relatively stable at approximately US$1,049,008,224 per year. A MAPE value of 18.24% indicates that the model’s accuracy falls within the "good" category. Overall, Indonesian coffee possesses a strong comparative advantage but still faces challenges in increasing its market share. Therefore, enhancing product quality and value added, meeting international market standards, diversifying markets, strengthening export promotion, and expanding market access are essential to improving Indonesia's future coffee export performance. Keywords: Indonesian coffee, exports, competitiveness, RCA, EPD, ARIMA, ASEAN, Europe.

Item Type:	Thesis (S2)
Subjects:	S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Divisions:	Fakultas Pertanian > 54201 - Jurusan Agribisnis
Depositing User:	Harisah Trihapsari Purba
Date Deposited:	03 Sep 2026 04:54
Last Modified:	03 Sep 2026 04:54
URI:	https://rama.unimal.ac.id/id/eprint/22245

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